October 2024 Update
I’ve admittedly gotten a little lax with the updates, and my apologies for that! I’ve been diligently working to get these into a format where I can send them in written and video form. Over the past few months, I’ve made some changes to the portfolio and added a few companies that I’m particularly pleased with. Additions include QXO, Lifco and an increased position in Fairfax Financial. There has been some volatility lately, and markets have been positive, albeit slightly unsettled. As always, there are a lot of factors. The fund has performed well over the past year, and we are up about 16% through the end of September.
The US economy is in good shape at this point. There are political arguments in the media that might have you think otherwise. Still, the reality is that the economy continues to grow, inflation has come down, and unemployment is not climbing quickly. Looking ahead, we see a slowing US economy, and we had a rate cut of 50 basis points in September. That rate cut might feel like good news for people, but the truth is that this is indicative of an economic slowdown. I don’t think this is cause for concern and it’s no reason to panic, but it’s something to watch. I would note that the markets are still holding up well, and they responded positively to the rate cut.
Regarding the Canadian market and economy, things are a little sluggish. The economy slowed here, and we saw corresponding rate cuts earlier in Canada to try to get ahead of that slowing as well. The interest rate cuts are expected to continue into 2025, although predicting that can be extremely difficult!
I would be remiss to skip over the US election and a couple of thoughts on the intersection of politics and the stock market. First, I will not change the portfolio because of the election or who might win it. This is not an unforeseen event, and politicians have less impact than expected. They take too much credit for things going well and receive too much blame when things go poorly. The reality is that the markets both rise and fall regardless of which party is in power. They cannot control this as much as they would like to, otherwise they would!
Until next month!
Vic
Aligned Capital Partners Inc. (“ACPI”) is a full-service investment dealer and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (“CIPF”) and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (“CIRO”). Investment services are provided through Agile Securities, an approved trade name of ACPI. Only investment-related products and services are offered through ACPI/Agile Securities and covered by the CIPF. Financial planning and insurance services are provided through Agile Wealth Management. Agile Wealth Management is an independent company separate and distinct from ACPI/Agile Securities.
